The Crow's Nest

July 2009 - A War Dance

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 23:29:42 GMT

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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While most of our social mood data comes from the United States, the patterns showing up here also manifest in societies throughout the world, and often in a more extreme manner. Last November, exactly where the social configuration indicated “chaos breaks out,” the Mumbai terrorist attacks occurred. Last month, exactly where a “paradigm shift” was indicated, riots and protests in favor of a new leader were seen in Iran.

In the first half of July, is a social configuration known as the “War Dance.” Metaphorically, think of warriors putting on war paint, pounding their chests, and beating on drums. Expect to see a surge in nationalism and the mentality of “good guys” and “bad guys.” The configuration for the US government is indicative of both high activity and “posturing” with the outside world. However, this occurs after the societal “War Dance” indicating that this action is likely responsive. Also, while “forceful,” the U.S. action should be primarily diplomatic (SE over SW).

With all of this, there are no indications of any new major outbreaks of war at this time. However, watch for the “War Dance” posturing and beginnings of a response before the 14th of the month. While at this time, it is not yet possible to pinpoint where the focal point of this “War Dance” will manifest, the most likely candidates are N. Korea and Iran. This “War Dance” configuration reappears at month’s end. Should the government assure that “all is well” at that time, be wary, as this would be coincident with a “denial” configuration.

There are no indications of a likelihood of actual disruptions in the supply of crude oil. However, when people are worried, even needlessly, they can resort to hoarding. Please refer to our Public Panic Crisis Event presentation for more information on this phenomenon (it is available on our website at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt). The most likely period for a manifestation of panic in the markets or otherwise is July 23 – 28. The likely public response to rising oil and gas prices near the 13th is unclear.

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http://anewstory.org/markets/Jul09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

The Next Six Months -- A Volatile World

Sat, 27 Jun 2009 17:06:09 GMT

I’d like to give you a heads up on the big picture, as A New Story Foundation has just completed a six month global mood and market outlook. Here is a brief summary for July - December 2009.

Look for global tensions to flare this summer and reach a peak in the fall. If the usual players are involved, then look for: 1) The issue regarding the US Dollar and world reserve currency should continue to increase tensions with the US, China, and Russia. 2) Russia is likely to be doing the natural gas hostage play again, increasing tensions with Europe and former Soviet States. 3) Also, watch for a hot spot in the Middle East due to the instability in Iran, and possible nervousness on the part of Israel and/or Iraq. 4) North Korea should continue to be an uncertain annoyance in the background.

The global economic picture should continue to deteriorate, and markets should generally be down to sideways through October. Unemployment should climb well beyond current levels. Look for valiant government efforts to turn things around by the end of the year. Near year's end should be the beginnings of a turnaround in sentiment that should continue into 2010. Expect a surge of hope (or denial) in November, and an attempt to see “silver linings” within a context of bad data or news in December.

Stay well,
Cari

June 15-28: Paradigm Shift

Sat, 13 Jun 2009 13:40:26 GMT

The next two weeks are the focal point of June-- What is America's place in the world, and what does it mean to be an American? While there may be the beginnings of a significant market correction, there is no reason to get caught up in any momentary panic. There may be a time in the future that the bottom really does drop out of the markets and the economy does fall off a cliff, but we're not there (yet). In addition to the sociological shift in the next few weeks, there is likely to be a shift regarding the symbols of America, such as the U.S. Dollar. The resolution of this American "identity crisis" in the weeks ahead could lead to renewed strength in the Dollar versus other currencies, or possibly, but less likely, to an abandonment of the Dollar as the world reserve currency.

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Excerpt from the June MoodCompass: June 15-21: Paradigm Shift. What America means in the world, and what it means to be American are examined and reassessed. A large stock market decline is possible. Strong US government leadership is required. Crude oil continues to decline. Watch for possible government intervention in the markets.
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From the Week by Week Highlights of Social Mood and Market Changes on Page 1 of the June MoodCompass: http://anewstory.org/markets/Jun09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation).

The Extreme Event

Thu, 04 Jun 2009 11:54:23 GMT

It was Obama's speech! That has to be the "possible extreme event" we were looking for that shifts the global context to the America's place in the world scenario from June 4 through the rest of the month. Fascinating.

June 2009 – Considering the Demise of America

Sun, 31 May 2009 00:02:37 GMT

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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The month of June is showing extremely complex social mood patterns, and the issues under consideration this month should be similarly complex. Following what may be some type of extreme event on or before June 3rd, there is a background of general anxiety throughout the month. With both “East” factors high, the global context is of high level meetings, negotiations and diplomacy. The very symbols of the global system, currency and credit, are likely subjects of discussion and reevaluation.

There is a curious configuration appearing in the mood pattern for US society mid month. It signals a sociological event, a paradigm shift related to identity. What does it mean to be an American? The idea of the United States and its place within the world system are considered and evaluated. Questions such as, “Is the United States past its prime? Is it overextended beyond repair?” “Is the US Dollar still a preferred reserve currency?” are all likely topics of discussion. The resolution to these questions will be interesting to watch as it unfolds. It could be one of resignation, or it could lead to a renewed sense of vision for the American people as well as a new urgency to succeed and lead the way to a global recovery.

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http://anewstory.org/markets/Jun09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Take a Break (May 25-31)

Sun, 24 May 2009 09:24:26 GMT

May 25-31: Take a Break. Panic subsides. Relief rally in the markets. Currency markets stabilize.
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From the Week by Week Highlights of Social Mood and Market Changes on Page 1 of the May MoodCompass: http://anewstory.org/markets/May09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation).

More Panic (May 18-24)

Fri, 22 May 2009 20:04:53 GMT

May 18-24: More Panic. Panic on a global scale. Situation seen as serious in the U.S (a refocus on the flu issue?) The stock market declines into early next week.
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From the Week by Week Highlights of Social Mood and Market Changes on Page 1 of the May MoodCompass: http://anewstory.org/markets/May09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation).

Somebody Fix This! (May 11-17)

Fri, 22 May 2009 20:03:38 GMT

May 11-17: Somebody Fix This! The Stock market continues its decline and bounces. Government intervention / strong action may seem necessary. Concerns about both the economy and inflation are likely.
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From the Week by Week Highlights of Social Mood and Market Changes on Page 1 of the May MoodCompass: http://anewstory.org/markets/May09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation).

Can't Take Anymore (May 4-10)

Fri, 22 May 2009 20:02:18 GMT

May 4–10: Can’t Take Anymore. A possible last push towards hope and optimism. A serious situation met with denial. Safety seeking behavior, including stock market decline that continues into next week.
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From the Week by Week Highlights of Social Mood and Market Changes on Page 1 of the May MoodCompass:
http://anewstory.org/markets/May09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation).

May 2009 – Did Somebody Say “All Clear”?

Sun, 03 May 2009 01:38:05 GMT

The Swine Flu may end up not being much more than "the flu," but stay prepared with back up plans for schools, day care, and even groceries "just in case." People can be fickle and hard to predict as to what leads them to decide whether something is worth panicking over or not.

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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Last month there was an indication of an “unexpected ‘extreme event’ on a global scale.” It was somewhat of a puzzle for us, as the effects on the government appeared to be extreme, yet there was no indication of a stock market crash or heightened geopolitical concerns. If it wasn’t the economy, a war, or a terrorist attack, what could possibly put the U.S. government into such a tizzy? As events unfolded during the month, the swine flu scare was the best fit for this “extreme event.” While we had cited the beginning of the event as likely to be the week of the 13th, the crisis point indicated by our U.S. government chart was April 24-27, exactly where the flu made U.S. (and world) headlines.

As of this writing, there is a downplaying of the seriousness of this flu by the World Health Organization. While its trivialization may or may not end up being a correct assessment, it is important to notice that the alert level is still being maintained at 5. While we are not public health or epidemiology experts in any sense of the word, there are some signals in our social mood and perception charts that encourage continued vigilance for the time being. 1) The global context for the week of May 4 is one of denial of the full extent of a very serious situation. 2) There are indications of a situation that is seen as extremely serious by U.S. society mid to late month with concurrent panic on a global scale. 3) While there may be economic ramifications, the situation does not appear to be primarily economic.

Of course, this is a new month, and there could be completely new problems that fulfill these criteria. The concern is that a brush off of the swine flu and later resurgence of panic regarding its spread or seriousness is much too consistent with the three factors listed above to allow complacency about it just yet. Whether it ends up being “just a flu” in reality or not, panic, and its effect on our daily lives, is all about perception.

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http://anewstory.org/markets/May09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

April 2009 – Let Me Off this Crazy Ride!

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 15:54:15 GMT

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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The stock market apparently made a bottom last month, but it’s not yet time to celebrate. The cycling of moods in April look like a harsh dose of reality clashing with burgeoning optimism. It isn’t pretty. The focus this month is not primarily the stock market. Believe it or not, there are other things happening in the world and in life to pay attention to.

In general, U.S. Society throughout the month is agitated, perhaps even angry. People are tired of hearing about the economic downturn and what needs to be done about it. They are tired of their government fighting about what should and should not be done. While social unrest around the world last month was quite high, it is yet to be seen whether this fuse gets ignited into some massive demonstration or outbreak in this country.

In the marketplace this month, look for a strong resurgence in the energy markets. Expect the price for oil and gasoline to climb throughout much of the month. There is also extreme action indicated in the currency and bond markets. In a global social and economic sense, things are on the unstable side of the scale.

Of particular concern is the week of April 13th. There is the possibility of an unexpected “extreme event” on a global scale. The manifestation in the US government is turmoil and chaos. Whether this occurs in this country, somewhere else, or “everywhere,” the scale is large enough to cause at least two weeks of disruption of the government’s focus. Public opinion of the government during this period should be extremely low as well.

To summarize, I will quote a colleague who is gifted in the use of metaphor: “April this year is like a sick, twisted roller coaster ride at a creepy, run down carnival. You just want to get off the ride and go home.”

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http://anewstory.org/markets/Apr09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

March 2009 – Disgruntled, Discontented, and Directionless

Sun, 01 Mar 2009 03:59:07 GMT

Global Risk of Social Unrest: EXTREME!

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
March 2009 – Disgruntled, Discontented, and Directionless

The background theme throughout the month is an aimless, anxious, agitation. People, in general, are worried about the future; increasing numbers are concerned with survival needs in the present. To make matters worse, no one is quite sure how to respond to all that is going on.

Global stock markets are near a low and the negativity in social mood is nearing a peak. At such long term cycle peaks, the risk of civil unrest reaches an extremely high probability of occurring; the risk of misunderstandings between governments also rises.

There are numerous opinions about how governments should be dealing with the economic turmoil. While there is little consensus on exactly what should be done, there is much agreement, globally, that whatever is being done, by whoever is in charge, is the wrong thing, and that whatever they are doing is either not enough or is going to make matters worse. In the US, differences between political parties over the past month have been extreme. This month, divisiveness reaches a whole new level, and it would not be surprising to see some type of a demand for action, an insistence that the debate come to a conclusion so that plans can be crystallized and implemented. “Enough talk already! What are you going to DO about it?”

All of this painful agitation and searching for direction should likewise be a theme in the marketplace throughout the month. This is not the end of the economic downturn, but it is near the end of increased disintegration for now. When the next long term peak in optimism arrives, that will be the time to look for things to really begin to get bad!

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http://anewstory.org/markets/Mar09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Just a Few More Stock Market Crashes to Go!

Mon, 02 Feb 2009 05:35:59 GMT

This month there is some good news and some bad news. First, the good news: there is only a month or two left of really bad stock market crashes. Next, the bad news: the same as the good news.

President Obama has been saying it's going to get worse before it gets better. The next two months should look pretty bad for the global economy. More people will lose jobs, more banks will be on the edge of failing, etc. However, just when it looks like there will never be an end to all of the bad news, in just a few months from now, things will start to stabilize. It won't be the end of the economic downturn, that is still a few years away (according to the cycles we follow). However, it will mean a reprieve for a bit, perhaps six months, or even more. An upturn in the collective mood would be rather refreshing. I sure would love a surge of good news for a change.

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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February 2009 – Can’t We All Just Get Along?

Last month was rather interesting. There were so many puzzle pieces that looked so bad at a time that seemed like everyone should be celebrating – the drop in optimism and associated stock market downturn, U.S. Treasuries being sold off even though the stock market was declining, and an increase in anti-U.S. sentiment after a new, fairly popular president was supposed to take office. We were right on with the pieces of the puzzle. There was an actual 5% drop in the stock market on Inauguration Day itself. China, Pakistan, and the Arab world as a whole were less than pleased with the United States the very week the new president took office. However, as a whole, things were more or less “normal.” We must admit that we too were caught up in the expectations that a new president would mean that at least the mood should get better for a moment, and were concerned about what seemed to be a discrepancy. The new president is for the most part doing exactly what he said he would do, what the majority of Americans elected him for, yet the U.S. (and global) collective mood continues to sour.

In February, there are more reminders that things continue to be all too normal. Mid-month the stock market begins to crash (again!). The U.S. government is perceived to be disorganized, incompetent, and fragmented. With this configuration, it is likely that internal fighting and self-interest will impede agreements on any proposed solutions to the economic crisis (which should appear to be getting completely out of control). Whether or not they can get it together next month, we’ll have to see. Regardless, don’t look for any improvements in the economic outlook before spring! This next couple of months of stock market losses might be considered a grand finale of the “show” we have been watching since late 2007. During this period there is a heightened risk of social instability throughout the world, meaning a higher than normal likelihood of demonstrations, riots, and geopolitical escalation.

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http://anewstory.org/markets/Feb09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

January Addendum - We Have a New President!

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 21:37:18 GMT

Obama is now the 44th president of the U.S. I am very pleased and relieved that it all went so smoothly and beautifully. So, our worries were unfounded! It's interesting that in our work with the MoodCompass we accurately picked up on a large collapse in optimism near the end of the week of the 5th. We also picked up on the change to "panic mode" as Innauguration Day passed. These mood shifts were accompanied by appropriate downturns in the stock market (e.g. today, Innauguration Day, the market was down 5%). As it turns out, the associations with the mood shifts and the upcoming presidential transition were purely circumstantial (thankfully). I will be waiting to see what the forecasted increase in geopolitical interest is all about in the next few days.

The problems that we all have to deal with haven't changed. However, we now have a very gifted leader who will do whatever can and must be done to address the mess that was left for him to clean up. The big question is, will people give whatever is tried a chance to work? Do people, in general, have the patience to wait several years before many of the big problems even begin to get better? I don't envy his position.

January 2009 – A Year Begins; an Era Ends

Mon, 29 Dec 2008 06:03:29 GMT

*** Potentially disturbing material ***
This month I must begin with a warning that some may find the contents of this post disturbing, especially if you are an Obama fan like me. If you do continue to read, I have suggested a few practical steps to help you prepare yourself for what may possibly be a turbulent moment.

*******************************************

The indications for January are that there is a possibility that something might interfere with Obama taking office as scheduled. There is more information about the reasoning behind this in the MoodCompass excerpt below. While we can all hope that everything goes as planned, and the transition takes place in a smooth fashion, there are some steps you can take to emotionally prepare yourself should a worst case scenario occur.

1) Sit quietly with a paper and pen handy. Close your eyes, and imagine a worst case scenario. Notice your feelings, your thoughts, and your concerns. Remind yourself, as needed, that this is not happening now, and ground yourself. If needed, open your eyes to remind yourself that all is well.

2) Think of those people you would want to connect with should such a thing occur. Who would you want to support you? Who would you expect to need you to support them?

3) Consider who you are today to be wiser and calmer than a you in the middle of a crisis. Let this Wise Self write a note to the you that exists in mid January. Let this Self say to you any words of wisdom that may help you at the time. Write the names of those you would be calling, whether for your own support or for them. Afterwards, ensure the phone numbers for your list is available and add them next to the names.

4) Continuing to dwell on negative possibilities is not helpful to anyone. After completing the exercise, let it all go. Put the paper away in a safe place. Perhaps you will not need it afterall. Continue to live each day to the fullest, and enjoy each moment of your now.

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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2008 was a difficult year. Many have been expressing relief at the coming of a new year with new possibilities, and hopefully a new direction. If January is any indication of what the coming year will be like, well, let’s just say this has been the most difficult issue we have ever put together.

Each month we recalibrate the cycles for the collective moods and perspectives that we study and put the charts together for the following month. Following that, the cycles are interpreted in the context of current events and anticipated near future events. As much as possible, all of the resulting social mood and market information is integrated into a likely scenario— a hypothesized “big picture.” This month, there is a known event, the inauguration of President Obama. However, the social mood and market outlook does not match what would be expected at a time of hope and celebration. The most likely scenario, as best as all the dots can be connected at this time, appears to be a worst case scenario.

The week of January 5th appears to be one of incredible optimism in the face of very negative current conditions. This could be a good case of Obama mania at its best. However, near the end of that week, or beginning of the following week this optimism abruptly collapses... Then, as Inauguration Day passes, US Society enters “panic mode” and anti-US sentiment around the world increases. Connecting those dots, what conclusions would you draw?

One way or another January marks the end and beginning of an era. It should mark the end of the Bush presidency and the beginning of a new one. Another possibility is that it does not. This would mark a new era as well. Let us all just hope that we got this one very wrong this time.

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http://anewstory.org/markets/Jan09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

December 2008 – We May Never Pass This Way Again

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 14:32:10 GMT

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:

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On November 19 the global context was forecasted to shift from tension that “resolved into action” and in the US the social mood to a “chaos configuration.” This brought three days of severe stock market declines as uncertainty grew around the fate of the U.S. automakers. Following that there was an incredible, although nonsensical market rally, another expression of Mania. Global society continued to express the elevated volatility with civil unrest in Thailand closing two major airports, and terror attacks in Mumbai, India. In the U.S. the response was less dramatic, but no less fatal, as a Wal-Mart employee was trampled to death by a manic rush of shoppers, and two men shot each other as their wives argued in a Toys R Us store.

Fatigued by the seemingly endless months of negative forecasts, and with a potential view of “light at the end of the tunnel” as November drew to a close, it was mentioned in last month’s issue that December could hold a moment of relative stability. Unfortunately, this was premature. By the middle of the first week of the month, economic concerns should be accelerating once again as that “chaos configuration” makes another sweep. By the end of the second week, global tensions escalate and the U.S. government appears to go from paralysis to panic mode. While things may become a bit quiet (or stagnant) just before Christmas, on Christmas day or immediately thereafter the U.S. mood shifts to “safety seeking,” global markets decline, and there is a strong surge of interest in potential geopolitical threats. Anyone traveling for the holidays should pay close attention to the development of the global situation as well as any alerts issued by Homeland Security.

As the year comes to a close, one might look back at a year of tremendous change to this country and to the world. The levels of consumption that were taken for granted, especially in developed nations, have been sharply curtailed and continue to decline. In 2007, it was a foregone conclusion that another Great Depression couldn’t possibly happen. Today that possibility is a common topic of conversation. Whatever the outcome of the dramatic transformation we are witnessing, we can be sure that at the very least, the human world will never be the same as it was before this year began. As we said in January, this indeed was the “Year That Changes Everything.”

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http://anewstory.org/markets/December_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

November 2008 – Post Election Chaos

Sat, 01 Nov 2008 14:06:14 GMT

My introductory comments last month were a bit premature. They belong better with this month. I sometimes think about everything so much that I get ahead of myself.

This month could get quite disturbing for those of us living in the United States. The purpose of this month's MoodCompass excerpt could be considered an emotional preparation. In these difficult times I sometimes take comfort in knowing that large changes are coming ahead of time. That way when they do come, I can say, "Oh, it's that" instead of being completely surprised. Watching the patterns of mood cycles as I do, it helps me see order in the universe in spite of appearances to the contrary. While not always pleasant or preferred, things are unfolding "as they should." When things get crazy economically, politcally, or socially, sometimes the best we can do is try to surround ourselves with supportive people and remind ourselves of what is most important. This may be one of those months. Keep a cool head and stay centered. Stay connected with supportive others.

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:

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Last month, as was indicated, the fragility of the global economy was of high concern and world leaders actively attended to keeping the system running. While one of our “big picture” indicators showed an extremely low probability of geopolitical escalation (October issue, page 11), there was a strong indication of “external focus” by U.S. society. We did see large anti-U.S. demonstrations in Iraq and attacks by U.S. troops across the border in Syria and Pakistan. However, these did not grab America’s attention. Interestingly, a similar mood configuration for U.S. society appeared near the two political conventions last spring. Apparently, the usual signals for an external or international focus (the “warrior” configuration), also show up when polarized factions “battle” for an election within a country, even when peaceful and democratic.

In November, the focus returns to the United States as the world closely watches our presidential election hoping for a better future for all. Whatever the outcome of the election, there is a most curious shift that occurs in all of our charts immediately afterwards that builds to an extreme the following week. Perhaps there is a “snag” in the election results, or perhaps the election goes fine and there are new economic issues to deal with which return to the foreground once the honeymoon period of having elected a new president is over with. Without a context, such extremes are difficult to interpret.

After the election, the U.S. social mood shifts to what could be either anger or excitement (or both). The following week this turns to high anxiety, and the week of the 17th to an extreme Manic configuration which would indicate chaos and confusion. The U.S. government’s configuration is one with extreme preoccupation with keeping order the entire month beginning immediately after the election and peaking near the 14th. Be watching the news for a build up of tension and anxiety in this country and for more information on the specific context as to how this will be expressed. Pay particular attention near the 19th of the month when the tension resolves itself into the chaos configuration for U.S. society. Unfortunately, this is one of those situations that is so out of the ordinary that it is impossible to be more specific. Staying informed is your best bet.

As for the markets, look for serious declines in the stock market beginning within days after the election. There should be strong gains in crude oil and gasoline prices through the 14th as the Dollar declines sharply. Following that, deflation is back in the foreground with losses across the board in both stocks and commodities. The bright side is that December may bring a moment of relative stability.

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http://anewstory.org/markets/November_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

October 2008 – Holding the Global Pieces Together

Sun, 28 Sep 2008 16:42:56 GMT

I know things have been pretty tense lately in the U.S. and in the world. Jobs are getting harder to come by and money is tighter all around. The world is changing quickly, this country is changing as well. If we can just get through the next several months of rapid and sweeping changes things should pause at least long enough for us to take a breath and look around. It will not be like it "used to be" -- ever. The important thing is to be flexible on an emotional level. As we watch pieces of our way of life that have been important to us fade away, we may grieve, but we must accept it and move on. There is a time for everything, and the time to fight for a better world or for past ideals is not now. Now is the time to keep your head low, go with the flow, and survive the changes in the tide.

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - - -

Last month we focused on the United States and a possible market crash between September 16^th and the 26^th. While at the time of this publication, September 27th, the stock market indices have not reflected a crash in “points,” the month saw the demise of several “great American institutions” such as Lehman Brothers, and Washington Mutual Bank. Many individual stocks experienced declines of crash proportions. Retirement portfolios comprised of unlucky investments were destroyed.

In October, the focus quickly shifts away from the United States to the global scene. As economies around the world lick their wounds from last month, the awareness grows as to just how fragile the interconnected, globalized way of life truly is. While a spirit of unity or common goals might go far to solve the issues at hand, that is not what we find this month. Every nation and sub-group is ready to fight for their own interests. And it is in this spirit of self-assertive self interest that world leaders will try to hold the pieces of the fragile global puzzle together. We wish them luck!

In the U.S. an election draws near. Over the past couple of years occasional speculation has been made in various blogs and publications that something would occur near the election to draw attention away from domestic issues. Interestingly, the configuration for U.S. social mood is externally focused throughout the month even though the economy is in serious difficulty and an important election is about to take place. What a curious coincidence!

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http://anewstory.org/markets/October_MoodCompass.pdf
(current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net.

September – The Great Market Crash of 2008

Sun, 24 Aug 2008 03:17:30 GMT

As I wrote this month's MoodCompass intro, I could only wonder when I might get to write about some good news. It just seems to keep getting worse... Here's the excerpt from the September issue:

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How do we say this… Let's see… THIS LOOKS REALLY BAD!!! Last month we discussed an event or series of events centered around August 8-11 that could change the geopolitical and/or global economic landscape. The Russia/Georgia conflict certainly qualifies. This month, the globalization experiment continues to be severely challenged as cooperation between nations and even within nations continues to deteriorate. The global economy, already damaged, is likely to be severely crippled by the time this month is over.

However, our primary concern this month is not "the world." It is one country in particular… the United States of America. For the last few weeks, optimism has been on the rise. There have been calls of bottoms in the stock market, beginning with the zany Jim Cramer of CNBC. Analysts have begun suggesting that it is time to buy stocks again. As of Friday (the 22nd), the stock market is up for the month of August. In a bear market, fading pessimism is not a good sign. It is a clear sign that the next leg down is about to start, and this next one looks particularly severe.

There may be increasing signs that the American consumer is not doing well, or that businesses are in trouble. Anxiety among stock market traders may begin to increase as the stock market does not sell off like "it should" in the face of the seriousness of the global and national indicators. Eventually, the rubber band will snap. This next one should be unlike any stock market decline in recent memory.

It is the aftermath of this, how it changes the face of America that is of primary concern. How will all of our lives be affected as the investments, the life savings of so many are wiped out? How do retired persons or those about to retire who did the "right thing" now face that they have nothing of substance to live on? How do businesses large enough to be publicly owned companies continue to retain workers when their capitalization has been practically erased? What is the effect of such extreme socioeconomic changes just before a presidential election?

This is not good news. There is no apparent silver lining. We have taken on the task of warning of approaching storms. It is time to hunker down. This one will be a doozie.

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http://anewstory.org/markets/September_MoodCompass.pdf
(current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net.

The Next Banks to Fail

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 12:34:23 GMT

I just received this list from Weiss Research and would like to pass it on. This is their list of major banks most likely to fail. They consider a "C" rating to be a "yellow light" and a "D" rating to be an indication that you may seriously want to consider moving your money somewhere else. They also say to be on the alert for the "C" rated banks to be downgraded to "D".

Depression Era Clothing Gives a Heads Up

Sat, 02 Aug 2008 01:43:39 GMT

There is more and more talk about the Great Depression, and still more denial that its 21st century version is fast approaching. The fashion trends for the fall are expressing what our collective unconscious "knows." The quote below from the New York Post heralds this new trend. Expect fashions to get much more plain and depression-era like in the next few years, as this year's is a "lighter" version of the 1930s fashions.

The duds say it all-- and it's depressing. Taking a cue from the grim economy, this fall's fashions at Banana Republic, Gap and H&M are featuring a distinctly Depression-era trend of cloche hats, pencil skirts, conductor caps and baggy, vintage-style dresses. One of the most popular styles appears to hark back to the impish newsboy getup of the 1930s baggy trousers, caps, pinstriped vests, oxford lace-up shoes and utilitarian handbags.

-- The New York Post, July 28, 2008

August 2008 – A New Global Reality

Sat, 26 Jul 2008 19:27:38 GMT

Here's this month's MoodCompass excerpt:

This month, something fundamental about our world changes. It may be the way global society conducts business, or perhaps a major revision to the geopolitical situation. Although the extreme scale is clear from the observed and projected social mood cycles, it is difficult to be more specific. While this focal period is only a couple of weeks away, it occurs in a context that is not yet apparent. It takes place in a different reality than the current one; the only one available to interpret the social mood configurations of the coming month.

Near August 8-11 is a global scale “safety seeking” configuration. It resembles the configuration in U.S. social mood at the time of the buyout of the investment bank Bear Sterns in March and the expressed intended bailout of Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (institutions integral to the U.S. mortgage system) in July. However, what we are concerned with in August is more extreme in scale, and global in scope.

At this same time in U.S. society, we find the “survival focused” configuration. A mini version of this occurred near the end of June. This configuration is marked by a heightened aggressiveness in asserting survival interests or instinctual needs, and a lowered importance or general disregard for the factors necessary to maintain the “economic machine” our society depends on. If prolonged or extreme enough, this configuration can be accompanied by outbursts of civil unrest or disobedience. A public panic crisis event such as we have been urging preparation for would likely occur at or near this type of configuration (see the presentation available at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt).

In summary, global society is about to enter a new reality. It should be quite interesting. Grab some popcorn and watch the news. Next month, we should all have a much clearer idea of what this global shakeup was all about.
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http://anewstory.org/markets/August_MoodCompass.pdf
(current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

July 2008 - A Wild Ride!

Sat, 28 Jun 2008 16:18:35 GMT

Here's this month's MoodCompass excerpt:

June, we said, was the gateway to at least six months of increasing global chaos and disruption. Life in the U.S. and abroad would be outside of what we have come to know as “normal” in the second half of 2008. Well, we’re here now. After looking closely at the month of July, we are sorry to say that it still looks that way.

In July we should expect a global stock market sell-off, much worse than anything we saw in the month of June. Crude should continue to stay supported, even though global economies are starting to buckle under the weight of the high prices. With all of this turbulence one would expect high volatility in the currency markets. However, oddly enough, all indications are that the U.S. Dollar is unusually stable. It is unclear whether markets are simply non-directional for the entire month or whether some new type of external controls are added to currency markets to stabilize them in very volatile times. Behind all of this global distress appears to be extreme geopolitical tensions. The economic distress this month alone (and it gets worse as the year goes on), could be enough to cause surges in the unemployment lines. We again urge people to prepare for the possibility of a public panic event in the next few months. A presentation can be downloaded at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt.

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For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net.

June 2008 - Gateway to Chaos

Sun, 25 May 2008 00:20:06 GMT

Working for A New Story Foundation is interesting and exciting, but sometimes the work we do in looking at social trends and cycles can be a bit scary. What we see in our forecast for June and through the end of this year, I must say, makes me want to gather my family together and hunker down. Unfortunately, as with many Americans, family components are scattered across the country. I would like to share this excerpt from our latest (June) issue of MoodCompass:

"We recently prepared a long range forecast for the second half of this year for internal planning purposes. To sum it up, the entire second half of the year looks increasingly serious, chaotic, violent, and disruptive. The situations that individuals will be facing in this country and on the planet for at least the next six months should be extremely challenging. While we can’t know the specific events that will take place, what we do know is that the situations that present themselves will be perceived over and over again as far outside what “normal” is supposed to be. The second half of 2008 is a different world, in a sense, from the first half.

What that means is that June is the turning point, a one way door into a very different global context than that with which we have become familiar. Through whatever choices, decisions, and actions are made this month, the world will be set on a course that will bring increasing chaos, disruption, and distress for at least the remainder of the year. Although this is not the end of the world, what is likely, in the coming six months, is runaway inflation in certain sectors concurrent with extremely depressed prices in others; outbreaks of civil unrest in some locations due to disagreements with government policies or to general distress and frustration; outbreaks of public panic in some areas due to perceived or actual disruption of fuel or food (for more information on public panic events: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt).

The focal point for June itself is the third week of the month. There is a high likelihood of a geopolitical crisis and excessive losses in the stock market beginning early in the week."

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For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net.

Change is in the Air – and the Tone is Quite Somber

Sun, 27 Apr 2008 14:23:40 GMT

One of the topics in the news lately is concern over food shortages. While there is no real shortage, a public panic with hoarding behavior and outbreaks of violence can become serious. For more information on public panic and how to prepare for the possibility of this type of event, please see http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt.

The following excerpt is from the May issue of A New Story's MoodCompass:

Change is in the Air – and the Tone is Quite Somber

As there has been much talk by various analysts in the media about the worst of the credit crisis being over, one might hope that this indicates a transition to a more upbeat mood. Our analysis of the social mood factors for the coming month, however, shows the global sentiment to have an extremely serious tone. Whether the fears that drive the global situation are based on real or imaginary concerns, by the end of the month there is a likely shared conclusion—that something is going seriously wrong.

For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net.