The social mood configuration for next week infers a collective search for safety or an avoidance of risk taking. This has particular economic significance, as this configuration has not been seen since last February, before the big market rally that has been occurring since March.
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Excerpt from the November MoodCompass:

November 9 - 15: Market Meltdown. Safety seeking. Inflation concerns are replaced with concerns of deflation. Likely commodity sell-off and Dollar rise. U.S. centered economic crisis. Markets may decline sharply.
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From the Week by Week Highlights of Global Mood, Perception, and Behavior on Page 2 of the November MoodCompass: http://anewstory.org/markets/Nov09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation).

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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There is a sense of desperation to the month of November which is likely to challenge world leaders to find new and creative solutions to long standing problems. There are economic concerns that “stimulus” has not yet been able to make go away, and chronic geopolitical issues that continue to go unresolved. In the first half of the month, the primary focus is economic and currency issues. There may be one last big panic over the fate of the U.S. Dollar, after which it should continue to show new strength. As the seriousness of the economic situation begins to become clear, inflation worries will be replaced with concerns about deflation, and global markets could see a sharp, but likely brief, sell-off. The yet unresolved unemployment situation may require new and innovative responses from federal and state governments.

The focus shifts in the second half to the world arena. A polarization develops between “good guys” and “bad guys” (the identification of the good guys and bad guys would be in the eye of the beholder). There is a societal sense of righteousness and unity against an enemy or cause. While it would make sense that a specific event would cause such a response, there is no direct indication as to whether such an event is likely to occur or what it might be. Because there appears to be some relationship to this polarization with the energy markets, there is a good possibility that it involves Iran and possibly Russia.
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http://anewstory.org/markets/Nov09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

The global mood configuration for this next week indicates that it has the potential to be the most violent period this month. It might be of interest to watch the news this week to see how and where this manifests.

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Excerpt from the MoodCompass:

October 26 – Nov 1: Volatility. Resolution of global tension received as “bad news” (i.e. a negative event). Geopolitical concerns rise sharply. People are angry. Violence is increasing.
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From the Week by Week Highlights of Global Mood, Perception, and Behavior on Page 2 of the October 2009 MoodCompass: http://anewstory.org/markets/Oct09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation).

Many have been discussing the Dollar's demise.  There have been panic sell-offs of Dollars in the forex market, and U.S. Treasuries are being abandoned wholesale. Yet, this is the kind of extreme in sentiment that most often occurs at a market top or bottom. It's true that the U.S. government is borrowing unprecendented amounts of money. It's true that some countries including China, the U.S.'s primary creditor, is exploring alternatives in reserve currencies. However, as much as China, Russia, Iran, and other nations might wish there were another place to turn, the global system is intricately complex, and rests on a foundation based in debt and U.S. Dollars. Things can not safely change that fast. Also, as global anxiety climbs, and people are once again forced to liquidate assets that are primarily priced in Dollars, the U.S. currency will rise in value against the "commodity" currencies.

Even if there is still one more brief, but possibly extreme panic, holders of the U.S. Dollar will once again find their currency gaining in favor. Inflation worries will be a spector of the past, and deflation will once again be the primary concern. We've been here before. This is what it looks like at a social mood top, as markets in general begin to break down once again, and as Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar are sought as "safety." The Dollar may indeed collapse at some point, and inflation may very well soar to unbelievable heights as resources become more scarce. However, for now, and perhaps for some time to come, the Dollar may find support as the Great Recession continues to play out, and the spectre of Depression once again begins to lurk in the shadows.

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Excerpt from the October 2009 MoodCompass:

October 19 – 25: A Solution? U.S. government crisis resolved one way or another. U.S. Dollar declines sharply. Inflation concerns up sharply.

From the Week by Week Highlights of Global Mood, Perception, and Behavior on Page 2 of the October MoodCompass: http://anewstory.org/markets/Oct09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation).

October 5 – 18: Chaos. Civil unrest in the U.S. and elsewhere. World leaders try to maintain stability. Possible E. Asia event (Japan earthquake?). Stock market lower. U.S. Dollar stable, and likely up.
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From the Week by Week Highlights of Global Mood, Perception, and Behavior on Page 2 of the October MoodCompass: http://anewstory.org/markets/Oct09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation).

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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http://anewstory.org/markets/Oct09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

 

 

The Global Mood "Weather Forecast" for October 2009. Continued economic concerns, widespread civil unrest, and extreme Middle East tension are the highlights.

This supplement for September gives a technical insight into the mood cycles analyzed for the 2nd half of the month. Highlights: Destabilizing global events, and completion of both the U.S. Dollar decline and stock market rally from March.

There is a high entropy configuration in society's mood over the next few days indicating the possibility of a disruptive event (source: September MoodCompass). This could be geopolitical in nature, primarily economic, or a combination of both. Further elaboration on concerns for September can be found in this month's post "September 09 - Please Remain Calm."

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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The last few months have seen global society move from the brink of despair to a hopeful optimism that things may actually be starting to get better (even while jobs and homes continue to be lost). Wall Street has given new meaning to irrational exuberance, as bullish sentiment indicators reach extremes that exceed the levels of the market peak of October 2007. There are rumors expressed by some commentators that there never even was a recession to begin with.

In March, we cautioned to look for such an extreme in optimism in the months ahead, as it would be the signal that things would be about to get really bad. We are here now. September is a month of paradox, confusion, turbulence, and cross currents. It is a month where hope continues to push forward, as reality persistently slaps it down. There could be large stock market declines as well as huge market rallies as people struggle to find their bearings. There are indications of high economic concerns on a global scale, yet concurrent concerns about inflation are not out of the question. Another crisis regarding the fate of the U.S. Dollar may reappear, while the Dollar builds a solid foundation from which to rally from in the coming months.

In the geopolitical arena, there is increasing violence likely in Nigeria and more civil unrest likely in Iran. Either of these could cause supply concerns in the energy markets. There is a general deterioration in the desire for cooperation among nations, most notably from Russia and the Middle East arena. Global relationships could also deteriorate with Afghanistan, Pakistan and even India. The United States could begin to show an increasingly unfriendly tone this month as well.

In the natural world, it’s the peak of hurricane season, increasing the likelihood of tropical storms and cyclones. There is also a curious indication of concerns with disease outbreaks in Asia which merits watching. Overall, September should be an interesting, if not painful month, as we all try to orient ourselves to a shifting, changing reality. Global leaders should be working overtime to ensure us that all is well, and above all to “please remain calm.”

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http://anewstory.org/markets/Sep09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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We spoke last month of a War Dance – some posturing and chest pounding among friends. This month, the sound of drums pounding in the distance can be heard. They’re getting closer. The situation in Iran has been simmering. N. Korea has not yet been “tamed.” There may be domestic distractions—health care, the economy, and other things to pay attention to. There are summer vacations that need to be taken, and parties to go to. However, like it or not, it will be difficult to ignore the sound of the drums, especially near the end of the month.

There is a recent expansion of our research into cycles of mood and perception to a personification of the Earth or Nature itself and its “moods” created from a collage of how human’s perceive non-human nature. In August, there is heightened concern about issues related to global warming or climate change. There is a heightened risk of a moderate earthquake in the area surrounding the Indian Ocean. For whatever reason, strong concerns with disease issues are indicated in Asia at the end of the month, going into September (see http://anewstory.org/earth.htm for more info).

If all this was not enough, while Wall Street has been busy ignoring the high unemployment rates and the growing financial issues that Main Street is increasingly faced with, while banks have been finding new ways to risk money, and everyone and his brother are declaring the recession over, the ingredients for new crises have been stewing. As September approaches, a large stock market decline becomes increasingly near.

But that’s almost a month away. Go back to sleep. It’s probably just a bad dream anyway.
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http://anewstory.org/markets/Aug09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Our newest release is the "Earth's Mood Cycles," and is Gaia agitated in August! I am so excited about this breakthrough research. Let's hope that we get the message this time! It's now available for public perusal at the link above.

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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While most of our social mood data comes from the United States, the patterns showing up here also manifest in societies throughout the world, and often in a more extreme manner. Last November, exactly where the social configuration indicated “chaos breaks out,” the Mumbai terrorist attacks occurred. Last month, exactly where a “paradigm shift” was indicated, riots and protests in favor of a new leader were seen in Iran.

In the first half of July, is a social configuration known as the “War Dance.” Metaphorically, think of warriors putting on war paint, pounding their chests, and beating on drums. Expect to see a surge in nationalism and the mentality of “good guys” and “bad guys.” The configuration for the US government is indicative of both high activity and “posturing” with the outside world. However, this occurs after the societal “War Dance” indicating that this action is likely responsive. Also, while “forceful,” the U.S. action should be primarily diplomatic (SE over SW).

With all of this, there are no indications of any new major outbreaks of war at this time. However, watch for the “War Dance” posturing and beginnings of a response before the 14th of the month. While at this time, it is not yet possible to pinpoint where the focal point of this “War Dance” will manifest, the most likely candidates are N. Korea and Iran. This “War Dance” configuration reappears at month’s end. Should the government assure that “all is well” at that time, be wary, as this would be coincident with a “denial” configuration.

There are no indications of a likelihood of actual disruptions in the supply of crude oil. However, when people are worried, even needlessly, they can resort to hoarding. Please refer to our Public Panic Crisis Event presentation for more information on this phenomenon (it is available on our website at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt). The most likely period for a manifestation of panic in the markets or otherwise is July 23 – 28. The likely public response to rising oil and gas prices near the 13th is unclear.

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http://anewstory.org/markets/Jul09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)